Mexican Style! Canelo vs GGG Analysis

Saul “Canelo” Alvarez 49-1(34 KO) vs Gennady “GGG” Golovkin 37-0(33 KO)

The big moment is finally here. For those boxing purists, it was quite the wait for this fight to come to fruition. Let’s be real though, waiting 1 ½ years ain’t as bad as waiting like 5 years(maybe more?) for the Floyd-Manny fight to materialize.  Forget being a boxing purist, this is the next most anticipated fight of the year after that circus that occurred a few weeks. This is the stylistic clash that boxing needs to fully pull on the fence fans in to the sport, especially with how good a year 2017 has been for us. But enough with these musings, let’s get into the actually breakdown of the fight.

POSITIVES

Canelo’s best wins: Miguel Cotto, Erislandy Lara, Austin Trout

Canelo Alvarez has one blemish on his record, and that is of course the Floyd Mayweather fight he took on at age 23. It was a one sided fight with some good action here and there but it didn’t ruin anyone’s expectations of Canelo, because he after all was very young and facing the best fighter in boxing at the time, and one of the best ever in the history of the sport. Since then, Canelo has run off a 7-0 record with wins over fighters such as Erislandy Lara and Miguel Cotto.

Canelo is a dynamic talent with the flashy hand speed and power that you expect from the best. It’s not just the speed or the power that he possesses, it’s the skill and the ring IQ that you see out of him. His countering is one of his best attributes as well as his dedication to the body. We saw that beautiful overhand right he slept Amir Khan with. It’s a massive weapon along with the left hook to the body. He also possesses really solid defense with his elusive head movement that he shows that may remind some of Floyd. He’s one of the best boxers in the sport and has only developed more over the years since his loss to Floyd. Because of his style, you’ll never expect a dull fight out of him because he’s right at midrange most of the time.

GGG’s best wins: Daniel Jacobs, David Lemieux, Kell Brook

GGG’s record speaks for itself. Unblemished and the WBC, WBA and IBF champion at the Middleweight division. There haven’t been many Golovkin opponents that have been able to stand up to his power for the full 12 rounds as champion and he has looked almost unstoppable over the past 5 years. His closest fight was his last one against Daniel Jacobs, which was his first since 2008 to go the distance. It was a competitive affair which GGG took unanimously on the scorecards.

GGG’s doesn’t fit the prototypical mold of speedy and flashy like Canelo does, but when you see him in the ring he’s calculated and vicious. His jab may arguably be his best weapon, although when you think of knockout artists you think of power punches. His ability to cut off the ring and move fighters where he wants them to go is second to none. He’s one of the most dedicated with body work (Mexican style!) and possesses the complete array of punches from weird angle hooks with each hand to straights. Similar to Canelo, never a dull fight.

NEGATIVES

So yes, Canelo only has one loss over his long career, but he has been in many controversial decisions. The Mayweather fight which most people saw as a 9-3, 10-2 loss, one judge gave him a draw!!! In the Austin Trout fight(which was open scoring), judges already gave already gave Canelo 6 rounds halfway through, so the fight was never in doubt. Most watchers felt that was a close fight. Then there’s the Lara fight which ended in a split decision, which is pretty fair(after dwelling on it for years). Canelo looked very average and struggled to get to Lara, which admittedly is a struggle for most fighters. The common thread here is that in all of these losses and struggle win is that Canelo struggles against movers. His foot speed is probably his weakest attribute and he struggles to cut off the ring. Fortunately, Golovkin is not that style.

Golovkin, the destroyer of earths. At least that’s what a lot of his fans and HBO(which are basically his fans) make him out to be. The reality? He hadn’t truly fought much in the way of opposition, though not any fault of his own. His fight against Kell Brook was the first time in a while we’d seen GGG look very sloppy, and that Brook had some success(it was only like 1 damn round) opened the floodgates for all the doubters. The Daniel Jacobs fight was the first really highly rated opponent he’d faced in quite some time. Jacobs possessed the power, skill and speed combination that people wanted to see Golovkin against. As you know, I predicted a Jacobs victory by decision. Instead, judges Unanimously ruled for Golovkin in a close fight. In that fight, we saw a more normal looking Golovkin, boxing and not being able to hurt Jacobs as much as previous opponents. We also saw GGG getting hit more and struggling with Jacobs’ style for rounds. Fortunately, Canelo isn’t as big as Jacobs, nor does he move as well or punch as hard.

WHO WINS?

I think this is a closely contested match and a stylistically beautiful affair, similar to Errol Spence vs Kell Brook earlier this year(if you haven’t watched, go and do so). I think we’ll see at some point some beautiful boxing from both fighters but they’re both eventually gonna be close so we’ll see some great action.

Golovkin has the size and power advantage here, especially being the natural Middleweight fighter. His jab is the x-factor that we’ve seen especially in the David Lemieux and Daniel Jacobs fights. It should be interesting to see Golovkin against a guy who can counter as well as Canelo does and also possesses pretty good head movement. To win this fight, I believe GGG must control with his jab but go at Canelo like anyone else. Pressure him, make him feel the power and see if he can deal with it. Golovkin is the bigger fighter and his jab has the ability to really control and make Canelo uncomfortable. We know Canelo will want to counter him so it’s up to him to be intelligent when Canelo has his back to the ropes. He obviously needs to dedicate to the body because Canelo has shown elusiveness up top. Canelo also has shown stamina issues over the years, so look for Golovkin to exploit that and not allow him to rest. We also don’t know how much power Canelo truly has at this weight.

Canelo has the speed advantage here as well as defense. I think if Canelo can get off before GGG and land multiple combinations, he has a great shot at taking rounds that might be close. We also have never seen a solid body attack from Golovkin’s opponents and Canelo is precise with that. If Canelo can counter GGG and discourage him with work to the body, we can see a different Golovkin than we’ve ever seen. I don’t believe Golovkin is great infighter and he generally wants a bit of space to get his action off. If Canelo can utilize the clinch and really make it a rough inside fight, he has a chance to really frustrate and take some rounds. Uppercuts, see Brook fight. Golovkin is older and has looked a bit down his last few fights, look for that to possibly play a factor.

Both of these guys have granite chins and it’s a really close fight to most boxing analysts as well as the bookmakers.  I fully expect a fight for the ages. I’m going with Golovkin by TKO. I’ve been going back and forth with this for months now and I don’t feel as if Canelo has the size or power to truly take make Golovkin uncomfortable.

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