Cuellar-Mares/Charlo-Williams Analysis

By Geoff
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Updated: December 6, 2016

Jermall Charlo 24-0(18 KO) vs Julian “J-Rock” Williams 22-0(14 KO)

Convincing people that the Junior Middleweight division is one of the best in boxing is a tough sell because the bigger names that have inhabited the division have either moved up in weight or ended up retiring. The other reason is that all of these talented fighters are either inactive(Demetrius Andrade) or not that active at all to garner the support of fans by being constant. Thankfully, we have really talented young undefeated fighters competing this Saturday for the IBF title and hopefully the winner stays consistent so that we don’t have to only talk about the guys below or above in weight.

Julian Williams has been waiting for a long time for a shot at a title. He’s one of the more vocal boxers on social media and is never afraid to speak his mind about fights he watches, potential matchups or fighters avoiding him. He was previously slated to fight Austin Trout in either 2015 or this year but the talks broke down and Trout ended up eventually fighting Jermall Charlo instead. When you look at his record you see there aren’t many names of note and probably wonder why he’s so highly regarded to a lot of people. It’s the skills. The Philly pedigree. Julian Williams has all the technical details down pat from punch variation to footwork as well as being intelligent inside the ring. What is great about Williams as well is that he can transition from defense to offense really well which is a challenge for some other fighters. Supreme counter puncher. A lot to show and prove to the fans that don’t know him.

Jermall Charlo is one of the two undefeated boxing twins from Houston who have been built up over the past few years. If Julian Williams is somewhat obscure, the Charlo twins are the complete opposite, having been given numerous big tv spots as well as title shots. I would be lying if I said they weren’t deserving of what they’ve received, though. Some of their fights have been a bit boring though and that’s the opinion I’ve observed from boxing heads lately. Jermall is the more exciting one with a 75% KO ratio. He won the IBF title against Cornelius Bundrage in 2015 by knockout and followed that up with a knockout over Wilky Campfort and a good tough win against Austin Trout. In that Trout fight he looked massive and like he could easily jump to Middleweight. Charlo has the size, the jab and the power. He’s fundamentally sound and that seems like vanilla sometimes when watching. But 24-0 is 24-0.

For Williams to win this he needs to use his movement and countering skills. I think Charlo is straightforward in that he wants to set things up off that jab and land the straight right and that he needs you to be there to be comfortable. If Williams can land that right hand over the jab he can have Jermall thinking a lot more about his gameplan. Jermall needs his distance and if Williams can change that over and over again then it will be tough night. We’ve seen Charlo come forward aggressively at times but he doesn’t strike me as a Golovkin type seek and destroy type fighter. Williams has the speed advantage even if it’s marginal as well as the superior footwork and movement. As technical as Jermall is I don’t think he moves his head enough nor is his defense that great so I can see him being outsped in that regard.

For Charlo to win he needs to impose his size and power on Williams. He has the height(6’ to 5’10”) as well as reach(73 ½ to 72 ½) advantage in this matchup. I don’t think this fight can strictly be about boxing, I believe he has to come forward at times and put the pressure on Williams to see if he can take the power and make him more defensive rather than allowing him to get in and out with counters. Charlo has the attributes to really be an effective pressure fighter if he wants to be and it isn’t necessarily out of his comfort zone to do so(did at spots in Trout fight). There are also some question marks about Julian Williams due to the lack of really tough opposition he has faced in his career.

I’m going with Williams here. It’s going to be such a close fight between young fighters and that’s even reflected by the oddsmakers with Charlo as the slight favorite(-125) and Williams(+105). I favor Williams’ because of the completeness that he’s shown to this point in his career.

Williams by SD

Jesus Cuellar 28-1 (21 KOs) vs Abner Mares 29-2 (15 KOs)

Abner Mares was once one of the highest regarded fighters and then the unexpected Jhonny Gonzalez knockout loss occurred. It shocked everyone. He received his 2^nd loss last year in August against Leo Santa Cruz in a somewhat competitive fight. His strategy last fight started off pushing Santa Cruz backwards and it worked here and there but seemed to take quite a bit of energy. Mares tried to slug and throw huge haymakers too much and it cost him energy. Bad gameplan. LSC outboxed mares over the 2^nd half of the fight at a distance. Cuellar is a big strong guy and his last notable win was against Darchinyan in 2015 by KO in a somewhat uneven performance. He only has one loss in his career, though, and that came four years ago. He may be a come forward fighter but he is very fundamental and starts everything with his jab and of course possesses a good work rate and power.

For Mares to win he needs to return to the boxing that made him a successful champion. If he can move and keep Cuellar off balance he has a good shot to take this fight. Cuellar has a high work rate and is prone to counters as was shown in the Darchinyan fight. He was even hurt a couple times in that fight by the smaller, past prime Darchinyan. I think Mares has a good chance since he’s the faster and more cerebral fighter in there.

For Cuellar to win he just needs to be consistent with his offense and avoided falling into a huge counter. He’s the bigger fighter and needs to impose himself on Mares. LSC did a good job staying on the outside and making it hard for Mares to land much after the first few rounds and its certainly possible for Cuellar to do, though he’s not necessarily inclined to box that way.

Mares SD.