UA-59049186-1 Keith Thurman vs Danny Garcia Breakdown - Good if it Goes

Keith Thurman vs Danny Garcia Breakdown


The huge fights in boxing that the fans have wanted for the past few years seem to be here in 2017 in every notable division, it seems. With Brook-Spence FINALLY happening and Thurman-Garcia in a few days, there is a lot more clarity and purpose in the Welterweight division now. Hopefully afterwards we can get another unification of the division that tells us who the best truly is. And it’s on FREE TV. SO EVERYONE GETS TO WATCH, BOXING!

Keith Thurman 27-0(22 KO) vs Danny Garcia 33-0(19 KO)

While both are undefeated, Thurman and Garcia’s careers are on seemingly different trajectories as far as perception goes. Thurman is coming off a big win over Shawn Porter, the former boogeyman of the division, and clear cut dominating wins preceding that. Since defeating Lucas Matthysse(37-4) in an upset where a lot of people were underestimating him, Garcia has underwhelmed in a few ways. He faced Mauricio Herrera in a fight in Puerto Rico that many thought he lost. After that, he faced Rod Salka, a fighter who usually fought 2 divisions below. He then fought Lamont Peterson and the outcome was again similar to the Herrera fight, very disputed. Since moving up to Welter, he’s faced a faded Malignaggi(won by KO), a faded Robert Guerrero(closer fight than should’ve been), and a guy named Samuel Vargas.

Now I know that probably sounds pretty bad and I should be bigging up the fight, but I have to give you guys the reality of Danny Garcia. He still is a quality fighter regardless of those two losses that weren’t to be. With that said, Thurman is still going to have a test. I believe Danny is the best counterpuncher he’s faced since his fight with Diego Chaves. That wasn’t an easy fight for Thurman and he had to show different dimensions before eventually pulling away. Obviously Thurman critics will point to the 1 or 2 rounds Guerrero had success in or the couple rounds where Porter put some pressure on as well and the Collazo body shot that hurt him. So it’s not as if we’re talking about perfect fighters on either end.

For Thurman to win he has to take Garcia out of his comfort zone. We’ve seen a couple times(in the aforementioned fights) that Garcia can be very plodding and uncomfortable coming forward, but it’s not as if we haven’t seen him being outsped and losing that way either. Thurman tends to mix it up as the fights goes along but he can’t get too reckless here because of Garcia’s blind countering ability. If Thurman uses angles to attack Garcia and his superior footwork, this is going to be an easy fight for him with his handspeed advantages. Garcia doesn’t have the best defense so he can be there to be hit for faster fighters in combination. We also don’t know how Garcia can take a true Welterweight’s power. He’s been hurt before at the lower weights so hey!

For Garcia to win he has to take advantage of the sometimes reckless nature of Keith Thurman when he comes in especially when his hands are low. Garcia has shown time and time again that his countering isn’t just luck. To the body is an area of note because Thurman has been hurt his last couple fights to the body, even though he recovered very well. I don’t see Garcia as a pressure fighter though so he has to avoid getting countered himself.  Even if Garcia is landing 1 for the 3 that Thurman throws, he has to make it a really big punch so the judges see who’s blows are more substantial.

I have Thurman winning this fight because he’s a far more skilled fighter, more talented in hand and foot speed, the natural welterweight and the more powerful fighter. Thurman has trended more towards decisions his last few fights so I’m going with Thurman by Unanimous Decision. Never count out Danny Garcia though.

Erickson Lubin 17-0(12 KO) vs Jorge Cota 25-1(22 KO)

The first time I recall hearing about Erickson Lubin was when he was being promoted by Mike Tyson at around age 18 or 19. You could see the potential and a couple years later here he is with tv dates and a raising profile, ready to contend for a title at Junior Middleweight. Cota himself only has one loss at the hands of Marco Rubio who around the same time had beaten a young and undefeated David Lemieux.

I think Lubin wins this fight because he’s the more talented and skilled fighter in general. It’s a good step up but he definitely needs to be careful with the awkward Cota. Lubin by KO.


And if this fight ends early, we get Chad Dawson vs Andrzej Fonfara on the telecast. WOooo!

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