NFL Picks: Super Bowl LVII

When last we met: 1-1 ATS, 1-1 ML, 1-0 best bets, 1-0 lock of the week
Playoffs: 5-7 ATS, 9-3 ML, 2-0 best bets, 2-0 lock of the week
Overall: 124-153-6 ATS, 179-102-2 ML, 23-32-1 best bets, 10-9 lock of the week

Lines for this week’s NFL games come from FanDuel, and will continue to do so until a sportsbook gives us money to plug them. Lines marked with an asterisk are consensus lines because the game is not on the board at FanDuel at the time of writing. Bold indicates a best bet. Bold and italic indicates the lock of the week. Lines and odds are accurate as of time of writing and may have shifted prior to publishing.

This week:

The Chiefs have the #1 passing offense per DVOA. The Eagles have the #1 passing defense. HOWEVA, that seems to be highly predicated on their pass rush. On plays where the ball gets out either really quickly or really slowly, the Eagles’ defensive efficiency plummets. Look for Andy Reid to utilize the quick game. Patrick Mahomes is excellent on RPOs. As great as Philly’s pass defense is, the Eagles rank only 21st in DVOA against the run. This is where Kansas City’s ability to run a lot of their offense out of 12 and 13 personnel is huge. They should be able to run the ball and keep that Philadelphia defensive line honest. In addition, the Chiefs should be able to use those extra tight ends to slow down the Eagles’ defensive ends on passing plays. Plus, the Chiefs clearly learned their lesson from the debacle in the Super Bowl two years ago – their O-line has been improved significantly. Unless Mahomes’ ankle is really bad, I’m not worried about the Chiefs’ ability to move the ball.

On the other side, I question Jalen Hurts’ shoulder. If he’s not 100% as a passer, that severely limits the Eagles’ offense. While the Eagles boast the top rushing attack per DVOA, it’s hard to beat the Chiefs mostly on the ground. Unless, that is, your defense can put together an all-time performance.

Ultimately, while I’m not sold on KC’s defense, I think they can be good enough. And even if the Chiefs do fall behind early, they’re never really out of a game – we’ve seen that story before. If Philly falls behind, I’m not so sure they can come back. The Chiefs have multiple options to neutralize the Philadelphia pass rush and the Eagles’ defense is significantly worse when they either can’t get to the QB or don’t have time to. KC +1.5, ML

Player props best bets:

Jalen Hurts u1.5 pass TD -115
Kenneth Gainwell ATD +410
Isaiah Pacheco o47.5 rush yds -115
Jerick McKinnon o22.5 rec yds -110

Beyond that, if you think the Eagles are going to win, Haason Reddick is +3500 for MVP and I feel like that’s the play. Travis Kelce is going off at +1400 for MVP; worth a sprinkle.

Prop bets picks

These lines come from Sporting News, but are my picks if you can get them at any book.

What will the coin toss land on? 

Tails never fails. Tails -105.

Color of liquid poured on the winning coach

It was orange the last time the Chiefs won and Andy Reid seems like the kind of guy to place importance on the flavor of Gatorade on the sideline. Orange +250.

Which commercial will air first: PopCorners vs. Pringles?

PopCorners got Walter White and Jesse Pinkman for their ad. If you’re gonna spend the money to do that, you might as well spend the money to get a primo spot. Pringles -105.

City Joe Biden Says First During Pregame Interview

I could see him start out by saying something along the lines of “being from Scranton…” Scranton +275.

How long will the national anthem run?

I don’t listen to modern country music because it’s terrible, so I know nothing about Chris Stapleton other than people sometimes tell me I look like him. I do know something about time, though, and 2:06 is a lot of it for the anthem, Under 126.5 seconds -110.

Twitter: @KevinSports312