NFL Picks: 2021 Conference Championships

Last week: 3-1 straight up, 3-1 against the spread, 0-0 best bets, 0-0 lock of the week
Playoffs: 9-1 straight up, 7-3 against the spread, 0-0 best bets, 0-0 lock of the week
Overall: 175-106-1 straight up, 144-135-1 against the spread, 25-34 best bets, 7-11 lock of the week

Last week:

13 seconds away from a perfect week. Alas.

Lines for this week’s NFL games come from FanDuel, except for lines marked with an asterisk, which are consensus lines because the game is not on the board at FanDuel at the time of writing. Bold indicates a best bet. Bold and italic indicates the lock of the week.

If you’re on mobile and the chart isn’t displaying correctly, here’s an image. Click to embiggen.

What Joe Burrow has done in Cincinnati this year is nothing short of incredible. Despite a doofus head coach and an offensive line that acts like Burrow insulted their mothers, he (along with sure-fire offensive rookie of the year) Ja’Marr Chase have gotten them to the AFC Championship Game. But it ends here. It would’ve ended last week if Tennessee’s offense didn’t stink. This week, they’ll deal with the league’s #3 DVOA offense, and while Kansas City’s defense isn’t quite what Tennessee’s is, they did get significantly better as the season went on, finishing 13th in weighted defensive DVOA. This one could get ugly. I’m issuing a lock on KC -7.5.

San Francisco’s metrics look better than their record did. They were 5th in offensive DVOA and 7th in defensive. But they would be sitting at home this week if Green Bay’s special teams had been at all competent last week. Heck, even “bad” would have sufficed. But, given yet another playoff dud from Mr. Discount Double Choke, they couldn’t survive their special teams being an outright liability. Speaking of “outright liability,” one currently wears #10 for San Francisco. Yes, Green Bay’s special teams was 10 points to the negative, but Jimmy G threw away at least 3 himself and 7 if he sees The People’s Tight End in the end zone with the nearest defender in Sheboygan. Not to mention that the Packers were only in position for that field goal at the end of the first half because the 49ers’ very average pass defense lost Aaron Jones. This space says that this is the week the 49ers’ shortcomings come home to roost. Yes, they’ve beaten the Rams twice this year. Third time’s the charm.

Twitter: @KSchroeder_312

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