NFL Picks: 2022 Week 14

Last week: 9-6 ATS, 11-3-1 ML, 3-1 best bets, 1-0 lock of the week
Season: 83-108-4 ATS, 117-76-2 ML, 17-24-1 best bets, 5-7 lock of the week

Lines for this week’s NFL games come from FanDuel, and will continue to do so until a sportsbook gives us money to plug them. Lines marked with an asterisk are consensus lines because the game is not on the board at FanDuel at the time of writing. Bold indicates a best bet. Bold and italic indicates the lock of the week.

This week:

This board has a lot of lines that feel like overreactions to me. The Lions looked great against the Jags, but I still don’t think they should be giving points to Minnesota with that defense. MIN +1.5.

Last week’s SF-MIA game produced two overreactions: Miami isn’t that good and Brock Purdy is. Purdy’s about to go up against the G.O.A.T. Welcome to the NFL, kid. While I think the 49ers are a much better overall team, that QB matchup should make this, at best, a pick ’em to me. You’re giving me more than a score, I’m gonna take it. TB +3.5. The other overreaction has Miami only laying a field goal to a Chargers team who, even when they’ve found wins, haven’t looked impressive. While I still doubt Tua’s ability to take Miami deep into the postseason, I’m confident he can cover this. MIA -3.

My lock of the week is LAR +6.5 vs. LV. The Rams stink. They don’t have a QB. Baker Mayfield is the least bad option over there. HOWEVA, I don’t trust McDaniels and the Raiders to cover 6.5 and I double don’t trust them to do it on a Thursday night, given what we’ve seen from a lot of the Thursday games this year.

Twitter: @KevinSports312

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