UA-59049186-1 Keith Thurman vs Shawn Porter & Undercard - Good if it Goes

Keith Thurman vs Shawn Porter & Undercard

Thurman vs Porter

Keith Thurman 26-0 (22 KOs) vs Shawn Porter 26-1 (21 KOs)

On June 25, we will finally get the long awaited showdown between Keith Thurman and Shawn Porter. I hope. This fight has been in the works for so long but due to an unfortunate car crash and injury to Keith Thurman, the fight was postponed a couple months. The importance of this fight cannot be understated in a very stacked Welterweight division with fighters such as Kell Brook, Danny Garcia, Timothy Bradley, Amir Khan and up and coming fighters like Errol Spence, Sammie Vasquez and Frankie Gomez.

Thurman’s career up to this point has been dominate over every opponent but he has received criticism for what has been perceived as “running” (lol) to some fans who became accustomed to his knockouts. His resume has also been criticized as well with people wanting him to take the next big step and face elite competition. Porter himself has faced tougher competition lately with his title fight against Alexander, Kell Brook and his recent win over Adrien Broner. In some people’s eyes, Porter may be more proven but I’m not so sure about that.

For Thurman to win this fight, he needs to just be himself, moving and boxing around the ring. Establishing the jab and keeping the distance is an absolute must. Porter is usually the super aggressive fighter so there will be a lot of opportunities to counter. Thurman will need to avoid the constant clinches that any fight with Porter eventually devolves into. Keith has the ability to fight different styles but he isn’t necessarily a rugged inside fighter like Porter is and even if the punches that may land on him aren’t clean or even effective, the judges may take note of them and it can sway them. The power and hand speed advantages are in Thurman’s corner and he also is the more cerebral fighter of them both.

For Porter to win, he needs to smother Thurman and make him uncomfortable very often, which is pretty much Porter’s game plan every fight. Its his style. He has to avoid walking into counters which Thurman is excellent at doing. Cutting the ring off is obviously a need because of Thurman’s great movement but he has great foot speed. That is certainly the advantage for Porter here. Porter also has the strength advantage in this fight due to him fighting at higher weights as an amateur and being the naturally bigger fighter. Not allowing Thurman to control the pace is necessary.

I’m going with Thurman by UD. Speed, power, IQ and skill advantage in this fight. Porter’s showing against Brook and the first fight against Julio Diaz also shows me that if you use your ring IQ to offset Porter’s rough and tumble style, you can make him look pretty ordinary.

 

 

cuellar mares

 

Jesus Cuellar 28-1 (21 KOs) vs Abner Mares 29-2 (15 KOs)

Abner Mares was once one of the highest regarded fighters and then the unexpected Jhonny Gonzalez knockout loss occurred. It shocked everyone. He received his second loss last year in August against Leo Santa Cruz in a somewhat competitive fight. His strategy last fight started off pushing Santa Cruz backwards and it worked here and there but seemed to take quite a bit of energy. Mares tried to slug and throw huge haymakers too much and it cost him energy. Bad game plan. LSC out boxed Mares over the second half of the fight at a distance. Cuellar is a big, strong guy and his last notable win was against Darchinyan in 2015 by KO in a somewhat uneven performance. He only has one loss in his career which came four years ago. He may be a come forward fighter but is very fundamental and starts everything with his jab and of course possesses a good work rate and power.

For Mares to win, he needs to return to the boxing that made him a successful champion. If he can move and keep Cuellar off balance, he has a good shot to take this fight. Cuellar has a high work rate and is prone to counters as was shown in the Darchinyan fight. He was even hurt a couple times in that fight by the smaller, past prime Darchinyan. Mares has a good chance since he’s the faster and more cerebral fighter in there.

For Cuellar to win, he needs to be consistent with his offense and avoided falling into a huge counter. He’s the bigger fighter and needs to impose himself on Mares. LSC did a good job staying on the outside and making it hard for Mares to land much after the first few rounds and its certainly possible for Cuellar to do, though he’s not necessarily inclined to box that way.

Mares SD.

jarrett hurdoscar molina

 

Jarrett Hurd 17-0(11 KOs) vs Oscar Molina 13-0(10 KOs)

This is a great fight between undefeated prospects and with an impressive win on such a big stage and should lead to even bigger fights soon. In Jarrett Hurd’s last fight, he put on a master performance knockout of previously undefeated Frank Galarza on a Showtime card while Oscar Molina drew with undefeated Domonique Dolton in a fight I thought he won. Both tend to be trending more towards counter punching. Molina is left hook happy and used it to great success in his fight against Dolton. His countering skills are excellent, though he definitely should add more jabs and right hands to his repertoire. He is very economical with his punches and goes in high guard if backed to the ropes. Molina’s sparse punching is part of his defense. He isn’t exempt to being hit but lowering his punch rate helps him see punches and counter more. Hurd possesses a surprisingly effective shoulder roll. We’ve seen a lot of fighters lately(not named Floyd) use the shoulder roll ineffectively. Molina has that aspect down as well as a good punch arsenal with a measured approach in the ring. Molina is a huge junior middleweight with huge reach and good power.

For Hurd to win, he needs to get Molina out of his comfort zone and counter his counters. Hurd’s tendency is to be a counter puncher and I’m sure he’ll have times where he can draw Molina in. Hurd’s size and strength can walk Molina down and wear him out. Towards the end of the Dolton fight, Molina looked very winded and took a lot of punches over the final two rounds.

For Molina to win, he needs to control the pace and catch Hurd off guard with his quick hooks. If he can force Hurd to come forward consistently and keep the pace slow, he has a good chance in the fight. He will need to vary his punches more because Hurd appears to be a solid fundamental defensive fighter who can adjust to the patterns.

My prediction? Hurd by KO. He’s the more talented fighter with better work rate, defense and size.

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