Kovalev vs Ward Analysis

Andre Ward 30-0(15 KO) vs Sergey Kovalev 30-0(26 KO)

Boxing heads over the past few years have become accustomed to not getting the fights that they’ve wanted. Whether it be years after the initial excitement or fights flat out not occurring, that is the fate of those who eat and sleep this damned sport. That’s why this fight is so important for boxing. This is a fight that hardcore and casual alike can enjoy to the fullest. Kovalev and Ward are the best fighters in the Light Heavyweight division and both happen to be right in their primes. And Undefeated! An 0 must go. This is also an incredible stylistic clash of offensive juggernaut vs all around boxer/defensive wizard. What is so refreshing about this fight is that neither side had the long contract negotiations and disputes that we’ve come to know in this sport(Golovkin/Canelo smh). This was relatively quickly made and both fighters have been justly paid(not that we care about that sort of thing!). Enough of all of that, let’s get started with the breakdown.

Andre Ward has had an interesting career with highlights of dominating everyone in the super-6 tournament at the Super Middleweight(168 lb) division. Names such as Carl Froch, Mikkel Kessler and Arthur Abraham are remnants of that monumental time in his career. Other wins include Chad Dawson and then undefeated Edwin Rodriguez. Since then, he’s been embroiled in contract disputes and has had a lot of career inactivity. A lot of the boxing world has cooled on him due to this. Whether it’s justified or not doesn’t really matter as much as the fact that one of the best p4p fighters in the world was so inactive. Since the contract dispute and his move to Roc Nation, he’s become more active and quickly made the fight with Kovalev(unlike certain other fighters *cough*). Basically, though, he’s fought a bunch of C fighters(Paul Smith, Alexander Brand) and unproven guys like then undefeated Cuban, Sullivan Barrera(17-0, 12 KO). He’s been dominant in pretty much every fight but some believe he hasn’t looked as sharp as he did when he was at SMW. So, the questions remain. Can he take Kovalev’s power? Will his strength translate up against an elite Light Heavy. On Saturday, November 19th, all these questions shall be answered.

Sergey Kovalev has been as dominant as Andre Ward has but without a doubt has faced the lesser competition. He still has good wins on his resume with future Hall of Famer Bernard Hopkins and Jean Pascal 2x(brutal knockouts). You can only truly fight who is there in front of you and I admit I was truly skeptical of Kovalev until the Hopkins fight. His last fight against Campillo didn’t appear as dominant as he usually does. He even appeared tired in the 2nd half of the fight. But, that’s to be expected against such an underrated and awkward defensive fighter like Isaac Chilemba(24-4 10KO). Some use this fight to speculate about how the fight with Ward would go. Meh. Inevitably, being from Eastern Europe, Kovalev will always be compared to Golovkin and rightfully so. Both are elite, undefeated exciting knockout punchers but the fanfare that GGG receives is far beyond anything Kovalev has ever garnered, which is confusing. After the fight ends on Saturday night, he may be even bigger and without a doubt would be the #1 p4p in the world with a win.

For Ward to win this fight he needs to do what no other Kovalev opponent has ever done for a sustained period. He needs to push Kovalev back and truly make him wary to engage offensively. Ward is a pretty complete fighter. He has the speed, technique, great defense and can fight at distance and in close(some hate those clinches tho). He’s such an intelligent and well schooled fighter that he always seems to make the right decisions in there. I believe that other than pushing Kovalev backwards, he can also box going backwards and counter whenever Sergey starts to stalk. Kovalev is well schooled as well and loves to start with his jab so there can be some counter opportunities over that. We also haven’t seen him truly get hit or hurt too much and with Ward’s great infighting skills he can definitely make this a rough and ugly fight. If he can hurt Kovalev to the body like we’ve never seen before then this might be his fight. There are also some footwork issues I’ve noticed with Kovalev when he gets excited so that can be exploited as well.

For Kovalev to win he needs to stay his patient and box Ward as much as he can. He’s shown time and time again that he can follow that gameplan and not run into opponents who are looking heavily for counters. Kovalev’s jab is one of the best in boxing and sometimes when he lands it seems that to his opponents it feels more like a power punch. Inevitably, Kovalev is going to get clinched as we know Ward tends to do and he needs to avoid getting roughed up in there. He’s the bigger(not by much) fighter and natural light heavyweight so he should be able to hold his ground there. Ward can box from a distance but I don’t think this is the fight where he wants to be on his back foot too much. Kovalev is great at cutting off the ring if that happens to be the case and unloading combos to fighters trapped on the ropes. If Kovalev can dictate this then he has a great chance to take this fight. If he can hurt Ward with his power punches like we haven’t seen in quite some time, everything changes.

Ward has never been too powerful of a puncher so I couldn’t see a knockout happening. He’s such a good boxer and I expect a back and forth exciting fight.  I’m going with Ward by UD

Oleksandr Gvozdyk 11-0(9 KO) vs Isaac Chilemba 24-4(10 KO)

This is a great matchup between prospect and established veteran. Chilemba is an awkward defensive fighter who has good footspeed and movement to trouble anyone. He knows all the tricks and that’s partly how he survived Kovalev. I rate Chilemba higher than others. Probably about a B, B- for what it’s worth. He has some disputed draws to folks like Oosthuizen, Bellew and Alvarez. He has wins over undefeated guys like Vasily Lephikin and Maxim Vlasov. So his resume is pretty good and he has acquitted himself well against the elite(Sergey Kovalev). Gvozdyk is an Olympic Bronze medalist who had a great amateur career before recently turning pro in 2014. He has been dominant mostly over prospect type competition. Gvozdyk has a really technical style and is well schooled as well as being 6’2” with a 76 inch reach. He has a pretty good jab but also has a well rounded offensive game. His last fight against Tommy Karpency he apparently got dropped early but recovered to get the knockout. This is a pretty big step up for him and I expect a tough fight. Chilemba has never been knocked out but you never know.

Unless Chilemba completely schools Gvozdyk I can’t see such a top flight prospect not getting the decision. I think he’s younger and ready to become a title contender and may be too much offensively for Chilemba. Gvozdyk UD

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