NFL Conference Championship Game Picks

AFC Championship: Tennessee at Kansas City

I don’t know what to make of this game. I know I’m done doubting Tennessee. But the Chiefs are a tall order and are an even taller one at Arrowhead. Hostile road environments haven’t stopped the Titans so far and they did manage to derail the top offense in the league a week ago. However, also a week ago, the Chiefs took the Texans’ best punch, then got up and landed haymaker after haymaker of their own. Your author and DVOA contend that the Titans are a much better team than the Texans, but I don’t think they’ll be able to stop a Kansas City team that’s firing on all cylinders. The pick: KC 27 TEN 24

NFC Championship: Green Bay at San Francisco

How many times can the Packers really escape with a win? Last week, they nearly coughed up an 18-point lead at home. During the season, we saw them be fortunate to beat the Bears and Lions twice. I know they’ve won 14 total games thus far, but they’re 15th in weighted DVOA and at some point, the luck has to run out. Here’s where it runs out. If the 49ers get to play their game, they’re going to boat race the Packers again. If Green Bay’s going to win, they’re going to need to get out to an early lead, force Garoppolo to make some big throws and hope that he can’t do it. I find San Francisco’s scenario far more likely. The pick: SF 31 GB 13

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