NFL Picks: 2021 Divisional Round

By Kevin Schroeder
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Updated: January 21, 2022

Last week: 6-0 straight up, 4-2 against the spread, 0-0 best bets, 0-0 lock of the week
Playoffs: 6-0 straight up, 4-2 against the spread, 0-0 best bets, 0-0 lock of the week
Overall: 172-105-1 straight up, 141-134-1 against the spread, 25-34 best bets, 7-11 lock of the week

Last week:

Lines for this week’s NFL games come from FanDuel, except for lines marked with an asterisk, which are consensus lines because the game is not on the board at FanDuel at the time of writing. Bold indicates a best bet. Bold and italic indicates the lock of the week.

Away	Line	Home	Straight Up	Against the Spread
Cincinnati	+3.5	Tennessee	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
San Francisco	+5.5	Green Bay	San Francisco	San Francisco
Los Angeles Rams	+3	Tampa Bay	Los Angeles Rams	Los Angeles Rams
Buffalo	+1.5	Kansas City	Buffalo	Buffalo

If you’re on mobile and the chart isn’t displaying correctly, here’s an image. Click to embiggen.

I think Cincinnati’s strong enough offensively to make Ryan Tannehill have to win the game for the Titans and if it comes down to that, I don’t think he can pull it off. The argument for Tennessee here is that the Bengals have the #20 DVOA run defense and the Titans are getting Derrick Henry back. But in his first game back from a broken foot, I think Cincinnati can keep him from totally wrecking them. I think.

San Francisco is a tough match-up for a Green Bay team that owns the league’s #28 DVOA run defense. They can’t stop the run, they have a hard time covering tight ends, and their middle-of-the-pack #15 DVOA pass defense is based around making teams throw short, which the 49ers are fine with. So why is this not a best bet with San Francisco getting 5.5? San Francisco owns the #16 DVOA pass defense and is tasked with defending the #2 DVOA pass offense. While the 49ers should have the advantage up front on defense, the Packers have made things work cobbling offensive line together out of paperclips and duct tape all year. If the Packers can score quickly and make Jimmy G beat them, this space says they’ll be off to the title game. The other issue is that FanDuel had the game at 5.5. If you can get it at 6, I like the play.

This feels like the game where Tampa’s injuries catch up to them. The Rams can commit Ramsey to Mike Evans without having to worry too much about anyone else besides Gronk. HOWEVA, #12 for Tampa is still out there and I’ll never criticize anyone for not wanting to bet against the GOAT Tom Brady.

KC-Buffalo should be the best game of the week. Kansas City’s defense has gotten better throughout the year (they’re the #24 overall DVOA defense, but 13th in weighted DVOA), but they’re going up against the #1 overall and #1 passing unit in defensive DVOA. Buffalo torched a great Patriots defense last week. This feels like the point where they finally break through.

Twitter: @KSchroeder_312