NFL Picks: 2022 Week 7

Last week: 8-6 ATS, 9-5 ML, 1-1 best bets, 0-1 lock of the week
Season: 36-56-1 ATS, 50-43-1 ML, 9-12-1 best bets, 2-4 lock of the week

Lines for this week’s NFL games come from FanDuel, and will continue to do so until a sportsbook gives us money to plug them. Lines marked with an asterisk are consensus lines because the game is not on the board at FanDuel at the time of writing. Bold indicates a best bet. Bold and italic indicates the lock of the week.

This week:

Only two best bets again this week.

First, do I trust the Packers? Absolutely not. HOWEVA, they only need to play as well as the Bears did last Thursday and they’ll cover this. Justin Fields missed two easy TDs that Aaron Rodgers won’t, and while the Packers have their own special teams woes, the Commanders will be without Carson Wentz altogether. GB -4.5.

My lock of the week is KC -2.5 at SF. San Francisco ranks 7th in the league in passing offense DVOA, but I still just don’t trust them. There’s an opportunity here, as KC’s pass defense ranks 28th in the league in DVOA, but can they keep up with KC’s offense? I don’t think so. San Francisco should be able to take away the run, but Kansas City doesn’t really lean on that anyway. The analytics paint a better picture for the 49ers than your author’s eyes do, so if this crosses 3, while I still like KC, San Fran may be a worthwhile play. YMMV.

Lastly, if CHI-NE crosses 7, that would be a best bet-level play.

Twitter: @KevinSports312

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