NFL Divisional Round Picks

By Kevin Schroeder
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Updated: January 11, 2020

Minnesota @ San Francisco

Kirk Cousins got it done last week. This week, he faces the league’s #2 DVOA defense and pass defense and has to do it outdoors, although San Francisco is not exactly the frozen tundra. I doubted Cousins last week and he told me “You like that?” as he beat the team I had coming out of the NFC. So I’m not going to doubt him again this week. He’ll play well, the Vikings will put up a fight, but the 49ers are just too good and they’ll get the job done. The pick: SF 28 MIN 20

Tennessee @ Baltimore

The Titans went into Foxborough and pulled the upset last week, but this week face the daunting task of stopping the league’s #1 offense and likely MVP Lamar Jackson. The Titans’ defense ranks exactly in the middle in DVOA (#16). So, needless to say, advantage Baltimore there. The one area that favors the Titans is the ground game. They should be able to get Derrick Henry going against the #19 DVOA run defense, but is that going to be enough? Your author doesn’t think so. The pick: BAL 31 TEN 17

Houston @ Kansas City

Looking at the metrics, I have no idea how Houston is here. They finished the season with the worst DVOA of any playoff team, six spots and 8.5 points behind Buffalo. Last week, they barely squeaked by the Bills after a series of Josh Allen brain farts. This week, they face the #3 DVOA team in one of the toughest environments in the league. Chiefs roll. The pick: KC 42 HOU 20

Seattle @ Green Bay

Green Bay’s offense went flat at times this year as it looks like Aaron Rodgers is finally slowing down. Now, Rich Eisen is right – 13 wins don’t happen by accident. HOWEVA, the eye test says the Seahawks are the better team. DVOA says the Seahawks are the better team. Your author says the Seahawks win this game. The pick: GB 23 SEA 27

Let’s look at our contributors’ picks: