MLB Division Previews: AL East

By DeQwan Young
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Updated: March 22, 2016

Last Year’s Standings

1. Toronto Blue Jays: 93-69

2. New York Yankees: 87-75

3. Baltimore Orioles: 81-81

4. Tampa Bay Rays: 80-82

5. Boston Red Sox: 78-84

Team Breakdowns

Toronto Blue Jays

Projected Line Up

Kevin Pillar CF
Josh Donaldson 2B
Jose Bautista 3B
Edwin Encarnacion DH
Troy Tulowitzki SS
Chris Colabello 1B
Michael Saunders LF
Russell Martin C
Ryan Goins 2B

Projected Rotation

Marcus Stroman
R.A. Dickey
Marco Estrada
J.A. Happ
Aaron Sanchez

Bullpen

Drew Storen CL
Roberto Osuna SU
Brett Cecil SU
Jesse Chavez MR
Steve Delabar MR
Randy Choate MR
Gavin Floyd LR

Breakdown

Key Additions: P. Drew Storen, P. J.A. Happ

Key Loses: P. David Price, OF. Ben Revere

Last season, the Blue Jays won the AL East in large part due to one of the most productive offensives in the majors. Toronto finished first in runs scored and home runs and finished 2nd in batting average. Combine that with a pitching staff that accumulated a 3.8 era, 12th best in the Majors, and a defense that had the 11th best fielding percentage and it is not hard to see why Toronto was able to win 93 games and have their most successful season in years. The Blue Jays, for the most part, return their entire lineup from a year ago, which means they should be among baseball’s elite offenses again in 2016. The big question mark is the pitching staff. How will the Blue Jays overcome the loss of David Price, their ace a year ago and a key reason for their success? Hitting is great and all, but we all know pitching wins championships and it remains to be seen if this rotation will be good enough to take the Blue Jays further than they were able to go in last year’s postseason.

New York Yankees

Projected Line-up

Jacoby Ellsbury CF
Brett Gardner LF
Carlos Beltran RF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez DH
Brice McCann C
Chase Headley 3B
Starlin Castro 2B
Didi Gregorius SS

Projected Rotation

Masahiro Tanaka
Michael Pineda
Luis Severino
C.C. Sabathia
Nathan Eovaldi

Projected Bullpen

Aroldis Chapman CL
Andrew Miller SU
Dellin Betances SU
Chasen Shreve MR
Byran Mitchell MR
Johnny Barbato MR
Ivan Nova LR

Breakdown

Key Additions: 2B. Starlin Castro, P. Aroldis Chapman

Key Loses: P. Adam Warren, SS/2B Stephen Drew

The Yankees are as complex of a team to evaluate as you will find in this upcoming season. Call me biased if you want, but there is enough talent here for the Yankees to be dark horse World Series contenders. Once Chapman is back from suspension, they will have easily the best bullpen in the Majors, and if the starters can actually stay healthy, they could have one of the better rotations as well, giving them the total package as far as pitching goes. Then you have the offense. It was not always pretty to watch last year, but somehow the Yankees finished second overall in runs scored. And that was despite Teixeira and Ellsbury missing significant time. Which brings me to my final point. If, IF IF IF IF IF the Yankees can stay relatively healthy, and I know it is a BIG IF, but if they can do it, I believe they will win the AL East and have a good shot to challenge for the AL pennant. But whether they can or not remains to be seen as injury is often just based on chance and dumb luck. But nobody who knows baseball can deny they the Yankees have the pieces in place.

Baltimore Orioles

Projected Line-up

Manny Machado 3B
Adam Jones CF
Chris Davis 1B
Mark Trumbo RF
Matt Wieters C
Pedro Alvarez DH
J.J. Hardy SS
Jonathan Schoop 2B
Hyun-soo Kim LF

Projected Rotation

Yovani Gallardo
Chris Tillman
Ubaldo Jimenez
Miguel Gonzalez
Kevin Gausman

Projected Bullpen

Zach Britton CL
Darren O’day SU
Brad Brach SU
Mychal Given MR
Brian Matusz MR
Dylan Bundy MR
Vance Worley LR

Breakdown

Key Additions: P. Yovani Gallardo, OF. Mark Trumbo, DH. Pedro Alvarez

Key Loses: P. Wei-Yin Chen

After an impressive 2014 campaign, the O’s took a step back and finished only 81-81 last season. The biggest reason for the regression was the pitching, most notably a starting rotation that had the second worst ERA in the AL. Wei-Yin Chen was the only truly reliable starter they had, but now he has gone to Miami. Offensively, Baltimore was ninth in runs, and with additions Trumbo and Alvarez, they could be even better in 2016. The O’s definitely have a shot to be better in this season. Manny Machado, a former 3rd-overall pick, really exploded last season and showed signs he could be a future star. Combine him with Adam Jones and Chris Davis, and you have a pretty good trio to build your offense around. But “Will the pitching improve?” is the question. Gallardo was this team’s big pitching acquisition and will be expected to be the new ace of this staff. He posted a 3.42 ERA in 33 starts a year ago for the Rangers, and if he can put up similar numbers this season for the O’s that will be a good start. But what about the rest of the rotation? We know Jimenez is talented, but he has yet to recreate the magic of his 2010 season. I am sure Baltimore fans will settle for something comparable to his 2013 season in Cleveland. Tillman and Gonzalez’s struggles were perhaps most surprising, as both pitchers had ERAs in the 4.9s. Both pitchers had sub 4.0 ERAs in 2013 and 2014 so if they can get back to that form and Gallardo produces as expected, the potential for significant improvement from their starting rotation is there.

Tampa Bay Rays

Projected Line-up

2B Logan Forsythe
SS Brad Miller
3B Evan Longoria
RF Corey Dickerson
LF Desmond Jennings
1B James Loney
DH Logan Morrison
C Hank Conger
CF Kevin Kiermaier

Projected Rotation

RHP Chris Archer
RHP Jake Odorizzi
LHP Matt Moore
LHP Drew Smyly
RHP Erasmo Ramirez

Projected Bullpen

Brad Boxberger CL
Alex Colome SU
Xavier Cedeno SU
MR Steven Geltz MR
Danny Farquhar MR
Ryan Webb MR
Enny Romero LR

Breakdown

Key additions: SS. Brad Miller, 1B. Logan Morrison, p. Danny Farquhar, C. Hank Conger

Key Losses: SS. Asdrubal Cabrera, C. John Jaso, P. Nate Karns, P. Jake McGee

The Rays pitching was once again fantastic last season. They led the AL in starting ERA and had five starters with ERAs in the 3s. The entire rotation is under 30 which means it is very likely they could repeat their success this season and beyond. The bullpen is not bad but it is nothing spectacular either. Closer Brad Boxberger might have lead the AL in saves, but he also had 10 losses, and a 3.7 ERA for a closer is far from great. The problem, however, with the Rays is their putrid offense. They finished next to last in the AL in runs scored. They only had one hitter a year ago with over 20 home runs and that was Longoria, who is not quite the player he once was. The additions of Logan Morrison, Hank Conger, and Brad Miller could help a little, but it looks like small ball and manufacturing runs will be the approach on offense for the Rays, and in a division where all the other teams have big time run scoring capabilities, the Rays’ only hope will be their pitching staff, and I am not even sure that will be enough to keep them from finishing last this year in the division.

Boston Red Sox

Projected Line-up

Mookie Betts RF
Dustin Pedroia 2B
Xander Bogarets SS
David Ortiz DH
Hanley Ramirez
Pablo Sandoval
Rusney Castillo LF
Blake Swihart C
Jackie Bradley Jr. CF

Projected Rotation

David Price
Clay Buckholz
Rick Porcello
Eduardo Rodriguez
Joe Kelly

Projected Bullpen

Craig Kimbrel CL
Koji Uehara SU
Carson Smith SU
Robbie Ross Jr. MR
Junichi Tazawa MR
Tommy Layne MR
Matt Barnes LR

Breakdown

Key Additions: P. David Price, P. Craig Kimbrel, P. Carson Smith, OF. Chris Young

Key Loses: P. Wade Miley, P. Craig Breslow, P. Rich Hill

When a team finishes fourth in all of baseball in runs yet last and their division, it can typically only mean one thing: poor pitching. The Red Sox had the second-worst team ERA in the AL and their starting pitching ERA was 13th. But there is reason for hope. The Red Sox made one of the biggest splashes in the off-season landing David Price, even if it did cost them $217 million over 7 years ($31 million annually), and also got Craig Kimbrel to be their new closer. Those two signings alone should get the Red Sox out of the basement of the AL pitching ranks. It would also certainly help matters if Buckholz and Rodriguez give them more than 113 and 121 innings. But the real reason for optimism is the potential for improvement on offense. Last season as I stated earlier the Red Sox were one of the most productive offenses in terms of run production in the majors and that was with down years from Sandoval and Ramirez, plus Pedroia only playing 93 games. I expect the Red Sox to be even better offensively this season. They are very much in play to win the AL East this season.

Predicted Finishes

Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays

I think a simple case of improved health and some key additions to their pitching staff will be all the Red Sox need for a big turn around in 2016. As a Yankees fan it pains me very much to write this but I do pride myself on objectivity and right now the Red Sox look like the best bet to win the division. The Blue Jays and Yankees certainly will have something to say about it and if the Os can improve their pitching they could make some noise as well but at the end of the day I trust the Red Sox line-up more than I do the Yankees. I also do not expect the Yankees to be nearly as good offensively this season nor do I expect them to stay healthy. As for Toronto I think the loss of Price will hurt and I think their offense, though still very good, will take a slight step back as well. I mean c’mon nearly 900 runs is not something they are going to pull off two years in a row right? If they do they could very well repeat as division champs.

Twitter: @The_Coach_Buck